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We consider the task of evaluating a policy for a Markov decision process (MDP). The standard unbiased technique for evaluating a policy is to deploy the policy and observe its performance. We show that the data collected from deploying a different policy, commonly called the behavior policy, can be used to produce unbiased estimates with lower mean squared error than this standard technique. We derive an analytic expression for a minimal variance behavior policy -- a behavior policy that minimizes the mean squared error of the resulting estimates. Because this expression depends on terms that are unknown in practice, we propose a novel policy evaluation sub-problem, behavior policy search: searching for a behavior policy that reduces mean squared error. We present two behavior policy search algorithms and empirically demonstrate their effectiveness in lowering the mean squared error of policy performance estimates. 

When faced with sequential decision-making problems, it is often useful to be able to predict what would happen if decisions were made using a new policy. Those predictions must often be based on data collected under some previously used decision-making rule. Many previous methods enable such off-policy (or counterfactual) estimation of the expected value of a performance measure called the return. In this paper, we take the first steps towards a universal off-policy estimator (UnO)—one that provides off-policy estimates and high-confidence bounds for any parameter of the return distribution. We use UnO for estimating and simultaneously bounding the mean, variance, quantiles/median, inter-quantile range, CVaR, and the entire cumulative distribution of returns. Finally, we also discuss UnO’s applicability in various settings, including fully observable, partially observable (i.e., with unobserved confounders), Markovian, non-Markovian, stationary, smoothly non-stationary, and discrete distribution shifts.